Found at: http://www.fws.gov/science/doc/FutureChallengesLitSummary.html
NRC. 2000b. Grand Challenges in Environmental Science. National Research Council. National Academy Press. 77pp.
Synopsis: A report written for NSF to identify the most important research challenges within environmental sciences for the next 20-30 years, specifically the areas most likely to yield results of major scientific and practical importance if pursued vigorously now. The time frame selected focused on challenges that would take about 10 years to engage successfully, in part to allow for the training of a critical mass of scientists to undertake the necessary projects. After a wide consideration of issues, using methods described below, the committee selected 8 grand challenges. The selection criteria were: probability of significant scientific and practical payoff, large scope, relevance to important environmental issues, feasibility, timeliness, and requirement for multi-disciplinary collaboration. They concluded the needed environmental knowledge for the next generation will depend upon active pursuit of all 8 grand challenges. A focused subset of 4 issues was identified for immediate research investment by NSF and others.
The 8 Grand Challenges (alphabetical order):
1. Biogeochemical Cycles - understand the Earth's major biogeochemical cycles, evaluate how they are perturbed by human activities; determine how they might be stabilized. Research areas are quantifying sources and sinks of nutrient elements; interactions of biogeochemical cycles, assess human perturbations on biogeochemical cycles and their impact on ecosystem functioning, atmospheric chemistry, human activities and a scientific basis for societal decisions about managing these cycles; and exploring technical and institutional approaches to managing anthropogenic perturbations.
2. Biological Diversity and Ecosystem Functioning -understand factors affecting biological diversity and ecosystem structure and functioning, including the role of human activity. Research areas are improved tools for rapid assessment of biodiversity at all scales; producing quantitative, process-based theory of biodiversity at the largest possible variety of spatial and temporal scales; elucidating the relationship between diversity and ecosystem functioning; developing and testing techniques for modifying, creating and managing habitats that can sustain biological diversity, as well as human activities.
3. Climate Variability- increase ability to predict climate variations, from extreme events to decadal time scales; to understand how this variability may change the future, and realistically assess impacts. Research areas are: improve observational capability, extend records of observation back into Earth's history, improve diagnostic process studies, develop increasingly comprehensive models, conduct integrated impact assessments that take human responses and impacts into account.
4. Hydrologic Forecasting- improve understanding and ability to predict changes in freshwater resources and the environment caused by floods, droughts, sedimentation and contamination. Research areas are: improve understanding of hydrological response to precipitation, surface water generation and transport, environmental stresses on aquatic ecosystems, relationship between landscape changes and sediment fluxes, subsurface transport, and mapping ground water recharge and discharge vulnerability.
5. Infectious Disease and the Environment - understand ecological and evolutionary aspects of infectious diseases; understand interactions among pathogens, hosts/receptors and the environment, thus making it possible to prevent changes in the infectivity and virulence of organisms that threaten plant, animal and human health at population levels. Research areas are: effects of environmental changes as selection agents on pathogen virulence and host resistance; exploring impacts of environmental change on disease etiology, vectors, and toxic organisms; develop new approaches to surveillance and monitoring; improve theoretical models of host-pathogen ecology.
6. Institutions and Resource Use - understand how human use of natural resources is shaped by institutions such as markets, governments, international treaties, and formal and informal sets of rules that are established to govern resource extraction, waste disposal, and other environmentally important activities. Research areas are: documenting the institutions governing critical lands, resources and environments; identify the performance attributes of the institutions governing resources and environments worldwide; conceptualize and assess effects of institutions for managing global commons.
7. Land-Use Dynamics - develop systemic understanding of changes in land uses and land covers critical to ecosystem function and services and human welfare. Research areas are: develop long term regional databases for land use, land covers and related social information; develop spatially explicit land-change theory; link land-change theory to space-based imagery; innovate applications of dynamic spatial simulation techniques.
8. Reinventing the Use of Materials - need a quantitative understanding of global budgets and cycles of materials widely used by humanity and how the life cycle of these materials (from raw material through recycling or disposal) can be modified. Research areas: spatially explicit budgets for key materials; methods for more complete cycling of technological materials; determine how to best utilize materials with unique industrial applications but environmental hazards; understand forces that drive patterns of human consumption of resources; predict possible global scenarios of future industrial development and associated environmental implications.
The 4 Immediate Research Investments (alphabetical order):
1. Biological Diversity and Ecosystem Function. Recommendation: develop comprehensive understanding of relationship between ecosystem structure and function and biodiversity by experimentation, observation and theory focused on: development of knowledge needed to enable the design and management of habitats that can support both human uses and native biota; develop detailed understanding of effects of habitat alteration and loss of biodiversity, especially those species and ecosystems whose disappearance would likely do disproportionate harm to the ability of ecosystems to meet human needs or set in motion the extinction of other species.
2. Hydrologic Forecasting. Recommendation: establish the capacity for detailed, comprehensive hydrologic forecasting, including the ecological consequences of changing water regimes, in each of the primary US climatological and hydrologic regions. Important specific research areas include all those described under Grand Challenge 4.
3. Infectious Disease and the Environment. Recommendation: Develop comprehensive ecological and evolutionary understanding of infectious diseases affecting human, plant and animal health.
4. Land-Use Dynamics. Recommendations: Develop spatially explicit understanding of changes in land uses and land covers and their consequences.
Implementation Issues. Recommendation: NSF, working with other agencies where appropriate, should conduct workshops that include research scientist in academia, the relevant agencies, and private sector, as well the potential users of the research results, to discuss and plan research agendas and address implementation issues.
Who contributed to this report: A committee with broad disciplinary backgrounds comprised of 15 academicians, 1 federal researcher and 1 Carnegie Institute representative met 5 times in 1999 to solicit input, select the most compelling challenges and form its recommendations. They solicited input from the scientific community in 1999 in the form of a 1-pg narrative describing the challenge and suggested responses. Over 200 challenges were nominated by the scientific community (including several individuals of FWS and USGS). Most input came from North America.
Relationship to FWS/USGS missions: This report has high relevancy and practical applicability to the FWS/USGS Future challenges initiative. It provides synthesis of the thinking among the scientific community on the greatest environmental challenges that may have tractable solutions in the near-term, and provides specific recommendations for agencies to prepare themselves scientifically for future action and response. FWS and USGS could choose specific recommendations in this report for implementation.
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